Monday, November 01, 2004

Is the Election Important for a Different Reason?

Many people have been getting the sense that this election is the most important one for a long time, and I agree, but not for the reasons they typically enumerate. In essence, and this is a big prediction, whichever party loses (likely the Democrats) will probably radically change or dissove into warring factions. I know a lot of principled liberals (just like principled conservatives on the other side) who are holding their noses and pulling the lever for Kerry. I think that this means that America will start, after this election, to dissolve away from "right and left" and into significant and distinct cultural groups, such as:
Paleo-left-right-anti-traders-and-technology faction: this group is best represented by the alliance of Nader and Buchanan on the war, trade and technology.
South Park conservatives: this phrase, first pioneered by TechCentralStation, was used to represent those young conservatives who don't care about gay marriage or traditional morality, and instead are more concerned with less government. Think P.J. O 'Rourke
It's a prediction of mine that, come Nov. 3rd, there will be a fight on for the conservative soul of the Republican party, and I plan to be there to start it off, regardless of who wins. If Bush wins, I will oppose every single thing he does that furthers the state and still call myself Republican, because there's more to it than cheerleading for Dear Leader.

Sunday, October 31, 2004

Election Predictions

George W. wins big, with 55% of the popular vote and over 300 Electoral Votes. (Think high, like the 330s or 340s). Why? I predict that Bush takes every single swing state in play and possibly ones that no one thought were (i.e. New Jersey, Hawai'i and possibly even California, ye gods!)

Additionally, every close Senate race will break for the Republicans. Why? Well, you can give myriad reasons, but the real reason is that we are only 3 years from 9-11, and people (especially the undecideds) will vote with their emotions, and no one, not even this rational, recently-come Anti-Bush libertarian can tell you with a straight face that he doesn't like the guy and that he didn't circle the wagons around Bush in his own mind in the weeks after those attacks.

It's just what will happen. It'd be a cool surprise to me (I love surprises) if it turns out another way, but it just won't happen.